A probability. Yours.
p(doom) = how likely you think advanced AI causes an existential catastrophe — extinction, or humanity permanently losing the steering wheel. Subjective. Bayesian. A belief wearing a % sign, not a lab measurement.
Museum of AI Doom Memes · est. whenever
what's your p(doom)?
p(doom) is your guess at the chance AI ends us — or locks us out of the future. Serious people pick a number. They never pick the same one.
Vibe check
Bayesian roulette (ish)Spin for a prior. Or type your own.
A Featured exhibit
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B The wall
Fresh p(doom) media
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C Primer
WTF is p(doom), briefly
The fight is the spread.
Ask researchers, lab CEOs, timeline posters: you'll hear <1% to >90%. In a 2023 survey of ~2,700 AI researchers, the median on "extremely bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction)" was about 5%. For extinction, that's not a shrug.
Doom of what, by when?
Two people saying "20%" often aren't saying the same thing. Extinction or disempowerment? By 2100 or ever? Conditional on which policy? The number is only as honest as the definition — which is why "it depends how you operationalize it" is peak p(doom).
Also a meme.
"What's your p(doom)?" replaced "what's your sign?" and can nuke brunch. Useful, though: it makes people pick a rough number for a fuzzy dread, then fight about why. This place collects the clips, art, and wreckage from that habit.
- ~0% Brunch accelerationist. “It's just autocomplete.”
- ~5% Median surveyed AI researcher. Still skipping that flight.
- 10–25% “Relatively optimistic” frontier-lab CEO.
- 50% Coin-flip enjoyer. Heads = utopia.
- 90%+ Canned goods. Longpost in progress.